In the previous article in this two part series we examined how ISIL became ISIS in US media but more importantly we touched on ISIL’s short, intermediate, and long term goals. Now let’s look at what the Levant entails to ensure we, the United States public, understands the totality of what fighting against ISIL means in the future.

If the United States government decides to fight ISIS it will be a losing battle of catastrophic proportions. By combating ISIS the United States, implicitly, admits defeat in other parts of the Middle East. This is why the name ISIL is more fitting, the name the group operates under already.

For western readers who attended Sunday School, remember the ancient maps of the Levant. It did not just include Syria. Over the ebb and flow of history the Levant has included in present day borders all of Israel and Lebanon, a large swath of Jordan and Syria, as well as parts of Egypt (mainly the Sinai region) and the most lower part of Turkey. Thinking about this map should give readers pause- Iraq and Syria is not the battlefield of ISIL, their battlefield is practically the entire coast of the Middle East. The primary concern of media coverage, and now the US presidential campaign, is what the United States is doing to combat ISIS (note the incorrect target) in Syria and Iraq.

• But what is the United States doing to combat ISIL in Turkey? The country where ISIL moves through most of their foreign fighters who will eventually see the battlefield in Syria and Iraq, as well as other parts of the Middle East. US and Turkey are NATO allies but the relationship is strained. Turkey is currently undergoing internal tumult from Kurdish desires of more independent representation/autonomy to terrorists trying to destabilize the Erdogan government.

• What is the United States doing to combat ISIL in Lebanon? Where terrorist attacks have taken place, as they seek to destabilize both the Lebanese government and the Hezbollah shadow government in the south of Lebanon. The United States has little involvement in Lebanon, and zero influence in the south of Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah, a Shi’a organization. Without a plan to help secure the border between Syria and Lebanon the flow of ISIL jihadists into Lebanon will increase. Accomplishing that border security may be untenable with Bashar al-Assad as the sitting president of Syria.

• What is the United States doing to combat ISIL in Israel and the Palestinian controlled territories? In the Palestinian controlled territories there have been efforts on the part of ISIL to recruit locals in effort to attack the PLO, Hamas, and the Israeli government. It may come as a surprise to some US readers but Hamas has actively policed this incitement in the Gaza Strip arresting anyone even just under suspicious of inciting local ISIL violence. As in other parts of the Middle East where Iran exerts influence the United States has little leverage to help aid the Palestinians in securing their territory against an influx of ISIL jihadists. Moreover, any aid to the Palestinian territories may be used to by the Palestinians against Israel. Instead, the United States government should continue to deepen the intelligence sharing with the Israeli government.

• What is the United States doing to combat ISIL in Egypt, mainly the Sinai? The Sinai region has been where ISIL has launched attacks against Egyptian security personnel as well as other terrorist attacks against the civilian population. From a US perspective a stable Egypt is excellent for regional security. Egypt in the past and in the future will be a leading Middle Eastern state helping shape the political dynamics that can jump from one country to the next as with the Arab Spring. Intelligence sharing, figuring out who and where the ISIL members of the Sinai are coming from is necessary to reestablish absolute security over the peninsula. If the Egyptian military asks for weapons or direct air aid the United States government should be open to meeting Egyptian needs. The alternative is a peninsula under more ISIL control than Egyptian control which will put pressure on US allies in Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

• What is the United States doing to combat ISIL in Jordan? Currently Jordan holds close to 5 million refugees fleeing the conflict in Syria. The current population of Jordan is around 8 million people. It is unprecedented in human history for a country of 8 million people to shoulder nearly the entire burden of providing for 5 million refugees. Unlike other areas where ISIL has direct terrorist attacks, and they have in Jordan, their biggest weapon leveled has been funneling refugees to destabilize proportions into Jordan. Without abundant aid the government of Jordan will collapse, providing more fertile recruitment grounds for ISIL. This aid needs to come in both the monetary and tangible form. The Jordanian government already needs more funds to build livable refugee camps, as well as food to help feed five million people. The United States is also a partner with Jordan in the coalition to fight ISIL, this partnership must deepen by providing Jordan more tactical weaponry. The most daunting task, but the most beneficial, would be for the United State government to help set up and enforce a no fly zone in southern Syria. This would allow refugees to move back across the border into their homeland. The longer refugees remain in Jordan the less likely they will return to Syria and the more likely the Jordanian government will collapse attempting to provide for a historic number of refugees. Of all the areas that encompass the battle against ISIL outside of Iraq and Syria, the Jordanian refugee crisis needs to be a top concern for the next United States president.

If the United States decides engaging ISIS is the correct strategy then the above questions cannot even begin to be answered, they cannot even be asked. The above brief prescriptions for dealing with ISIL in those other countries cannot begin to be worked on fighting ISIS.  Limiting the engagement to only two countries is a terrible a policy. Even with the defeat of ISIS, remember just Iraq and Syria, all those other countries where ISIL has a presence will still be operating as normal. With the power base destroyed in Raqqa, Syria watch for a more robust ISIL presence in the Sinai. With the securing of the Iraqi Anbar province expect Jordan to become completely destabilized. As Turkey begins to lock down and secure their border expect the borders between Lebanon and Syria to be erased.

However, if the next United States president decides to fight ISIL then the battle can be won. A comprehensive strategy can be put into place that accounts for all the US allies in the Middle East where ISIL is present. By looking at the total picture ISIL will not be able to achieve its short, medium and long term goals. A byproduct of a comprehensive strategy, which accounts for all US allies, is the future protection against other groups in the mold of ISIL. By deepening intelligence sharing between the US and Egypt as well as the US an Israel, along with providing material support, both countries will be better suited to combat threats emanating from outside of their borders. By aiding Jordan through one of its most tumultuous historical periods a country will emerge, in the heart of the Middle East, as a stronger than before with more capabilities to help their neighboring states. With a no-fly zone in Syria, finally, for the first time since the Syria civil war began people can return to their homes, hopefully reigniting the pride they had in being Syrian and making sure ISIL finds no home within their country. The battle of names, between ISIS and ISIL, may just be as important as on the ground activities. While they may have a head start, a western population accustomed to using ISIS, this is a marathon and it’s time to call the terrorists by their real name- the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.