By year’s end the city of Mosul will be occupied by a force intent on keeping control while simultaneous being surrounded and liberated by a force made up of multiple groups with multiple goals. This is a recipe for disaster and disunity. Currently the Iraqi plan is for parts of the Iraqi National Army and Nineveh province militias to spearhead the assault into Mosul while all the forces envelop the city. From there, the areas that are liberated will be secured by Kurdish Peshmerga and Shi’ite militias. While Mosul is made up of different ethnic and religious groups, due to the violence, the main ethno-religious group left in Mosul is Sunni Arabs.
Current reporting puts the number of ISIL fighters in Mosul anywhere between 1000 and 2000 able bodied men. I’m not sure how reliable this number can be considering Mosul is a city, now, housing over 600,000 people. Since ISIL gained control of Mosul in 2014 they have instituted changes to the education system. A 12 year old in 2014 is now 14 with two years of ISIL indoctrination fed on a daily basis, and ISIL does not shy away from using child soldiers. Worse, a disenfranchised youth at 16 in Mosul has now turned 18 and fed the lies of martyrdom by ISIL. Mosul has had two years of ISIL Islamic Law, today most males in Mosul all look and dress the same- so which is the ISIL fighter and which is someone growing a beard to stay alive. So there may have been 1000 to 2000 ISIL fighters in Mosul at some point but it’s a stretch to believe that number today. ISIL has fully blended into the population of Mosul. For Sunni militia members from the Nineveh province, they are surely aware of the careful nature needed of liberating a city where the enemy now hides in plain day amongst the population. The care needed to differentiate between someone with a beard who grew the beard to survive the reign of ISIL and a beard belonging to a harden fighter.
Shi’ite and Kurdish fighters may not look for the differences between residents of Mosul as carefully as the Nineveh province militias. In Ramadi and Tikrit, which were retaken by primarily Shi’ite forces, if you were in the wrong area and looked the wrong way it may cost your life. The timescale to retake Mosul, which will be longer than the battles to retake Ramadi and Tikrit, gives enough time for mistakes to become grievances. Remember, since the Iraqi government plans to cut off all lines of retreat every mistake the Iraqi forces make will create a grievance that ISIL can exploit. The members of ISIL will be stuck inside Mosul with two options: win or die. To necessitate a victory ISIL will need more and more troops. While being cut off from traditional reinforcements from Syria they have an entire city under their control. Each innocent man killed means a new recruit for ISIL if they have a child. Each business looted by a Shi’ite militia means a new recruit for ISIL. These mistakes and behaviors have already happened in other parts of Iraq so it should not come as a surprise when they occur in Mosul again. Moreover, mistakes in governance and the abuse of power by the Shi’ite government led by Nouri al-Maliki allowed for ISIL to be welcomed in Sunni areas of Iraq.
The Iraqi coalition looking to take back Mosul has to perfectly execute their military strategy since they have abandoned the maxim of allowing your enemy an avenue of retreat. It would be a moving catastrophe if forward forces made up of Sunni militias looked back and saw Shi’ite militias looting recently liberated areas. No matter the reasoning behind the Shi’ite looting, even if the militia needed food, perception is everything. It would immediately trigger amongst the Sunni fighters the idea “what and who are we fighting for?” This same line of thinking caused Sunni tribes to allow ISIL into a city like Ramadi as the Iraqi government forces, and the government itself, was failing to meet their obligations in defending Ramadi.
What will underscore fears of instability is the lack of troop commitment to retake Mosul. Having only 25,000 to 35,000 disparate forces to retake and re-administer government control in Mosul could easily allow for any ISIL operatives, assuming they lose, to continue the destabilizing terror attacks that allowed their entry in the first place. The first thing ISIL did when they rolled their pick-ups, tanks, and humvees into Mosul was remove any and all roadblocks/checkpoints put in place by the Iraqi government. The people of Mosul rejoiced at just the idea of feeling free again, even if it meant their new rulers would enforce draconian quasi religious laws. If the prior force of 5,000 well armed Iraqi National Army forces fled at the sight of ISIL what makes the Iraqi government so sure that they can begin administering control once again. Mosul after ISIL will be a fully war torn city with a remaining population rife with grievances with little avenues to readdress their grievances. To leave security control in the hands of the Nineveh province militias, backed by Kurdish forces, seems like the most sensible approach. However, the government out of Baghdad has yet to prove they can consistently deliver weapon shipments to the Sunnis or Kurds. Instead, much to the lament of American officials, weapon shipments sent to Baghdad earmarked for the Kurds or Sunnis end up bolstering the already impressive armaments of Shi’ite militias. A successful Mosul campaign would need to flip the script of how the Iraqi government has behaved with regards to Iraqi minorities since the fall of Saddam Hussein.
This is the slow grind of destruction Mosul stands against. The desire to be liberated, but by a liberator that will do as much destruction as the occupier. The citizens of Mosul are caught in a paradox of living under an oppressor of their own ethno-religious background or return to being governed by Baghdad that was a corrupting force on the city. There may come a time were ISIL will be forced into a situation between win or die, where all options of retreat are cut off and the might of US-Arab forces bear down full bore. Mosul is not that location. That strategy in Mosul will redefine a Pyrrhic victory for our modern times. Mosul is a city that has to become functional again if Iraq seeks a peaceful future. By following a strategy that cuts off retreat the Iraqi government may doom Mosul to complete destruction.