All posts by raincasman

The Silent Majority

Since its presidential election season the idea of a ‘silent majority” is once again hot news. After all, this voting bloc of individuals carried Ronald Reagan to his first term in office. They are also amorphous, in different eras different groups of people can become a “silent majority”. Ronald Reagan’s reelection hinged less on the “silent majority” but built upon the successes that captured the initial group of voters wary to make their opinion known. This usually defines a “silent majority” in America politics; voters who will absolutely cast a ballot, but voters who will not end up at political rallies, place bumper stickers on their car, call their local congressional representatives’ office, or volunteer for their candidates of choice campaign. All of those behaviors are attributes of active supporters not those of a “silent majority”.

While not doubting the candidacy of Donald Trump, or validity, I do need to wonder why he keeps claiming his campaign has captured a “silent majority” of voters. When there are signs stating “we are the silent majority” it is, in fact, a declaration of an active supporter. When a person claims they are among the “silent majority” but have a campaign sign on their lawn, once again an active supporter. However, in business it is always wise to rob your opponent of their perceived strength, equally true for politics. Contrast the Trump campaign active support to the Hillary Clinton campaign coalition of supporters. If you were just going to go by social media, that encompasses everything from Reddit to Twitter, and campaign rallies one would be shocked to learn Hillary Clinton defeated Senator Bernard Sanders. Senator Sanders’ rallies were packed events drawing tens of thousands across the entire country. The Sanders’ campaign, and his supporters, were more active on social media always getting the campaign platforms message across morning, noon, and night. However, Hillary Clinton managed to beat Senator Sanders by 3 million more voters and in total amassing more than 16 million total votes across all the campaigns. If it wasn’t for the actual act of voting it would have been easy to assume Senator Sanders was leading by a landslide with a lead that continued to grow.

As an aside, I would love for caucus states to give more credence to individual vote tallies and that being made public since transparency is always good for a republic.

 

To get back on track, I live in northern New Jersey; I saw signs for Senator Sanders on lawns as well as bumper stickers on cars. Hillary Clinton won New Jersey handily, giving her a campaign the confidence to assume delegate victory even before the California primary results were reported.  From an above view perspective it would seem the Clinton campaign has a better grasp on the current eras “silent majority”. This ranges from traditional Democrats who have been leaving the party for a more centrist approach to Republicans feeling alienated by the rhetoric of the Trump campaign. Remember the biggest quality of a “silent majority” is their silence. As with Reagan when he defeated Jimmy Carter the Democrats who ended up making the “silent majority” then were embarrassed to publicly voice their support. How could lifelong Democrats justify o their friends and family they were voting for a Republican? Turns out many of their friends were also voting for that very same Republican. So once again America is seeing a “silent majority” being formed, embarrassed to speak publicly of supporting a candidate. They aren’t putting up lawn signs or placing bumper stickers on their car, no, they are truly silent. Come November the United States may very well see the first female President, not because of raucous rallies or vigorous active supporters, but because of a “silent majority” that at one time helped a Republican reach the very same political office.

Grim Reaper Protects its Own

Many in the public would the hearing the name of the “Predator” drone alone would invoke fear, it does as it should. However, the Predator drone has a new brother, who is larger, more deadly, and more advanced- the MQ-9 Reaper drone. The Reaper drone is by far the most ambitious plan the United States Air Force has to modernize, and think toward the future, the United States air fleet. During the early years of combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, after 2002, the Predator drone proved highly useful but it was never truly designed as an attack drone. In 2007 General Atomics, the maker of the Predator drone, unveiled the first true hunter-killer drone the MQ-9 Reaper. Unlike other drones the Reaper cannot stay in the air for 24 continuous hours like its predecessor surveillance drones. Instead, a fully loaded Reaper drone can stay in the air for 14 continuous hours. Either way this air time for a pure focused attack vehicle outstrips the continuous airtime of both attack planes and helicopters.

By 2030, the United States Air Force hopes to own over 300 Reaper drones. The hunter-killer of the future may remind some readers of the ominous drones from the Terminator movies. It isn’t surprising; the Reaper drone serves the same effect as those hunter killers. Traditionally a column of troops moving through controlled territory would be guarded from above by attack helicopters, even higher up possible attack airplanes, providing both forward intelligence and the capacity to strike enemy targets. The future will see these attack helicopters and planes replaced in large part by Reaper drones. While it may seem fanciful, a Reaper drone, or better yet a group of Reaper drones can be armed just as well as an attack helicopter or attack fighter. The Reaper drone can carry up to four laser guided hellfire missiles, two of  the GBU-Paveway II (that is two 500 pound bombs), JDAM unguided bombs, the AIM-9 Sidewinder missile and in development the ability to carry the air-to-air AIM-92 sidewinder missile. The Reaper drone is a true flying missile fortress. If testing goes well the Reaper drone will be the first drone, in history, to have true air-to-air combat abilities.

Take a moment to let that set in, a drone that is fully capable of providing air-to-ground and air-to-air support.

For all of human history, conflict; any form of conflict; has pitted two human individuals against each other. Both of those individuals have the opportunity to lose their life, from taking fire from the opposing side to simply a malfunction in equipment in the modern day. The Reaper drone revolutionizes this concept. Once the Reaper drone has air-to-air capabilities the United States will have expendable equipment with little risk to US personnel. No other country on the globe, past or present, has been able to make this claim. The United States will be able to project power and defend its allies without needing to put pilot’s lives at risk. For the first time in history a war fighter can turn to their family and say “Don’t worry I’m coming home” and mean it.

Predator the Protector

The Predator drone. This unmanned aircraft has been the face of the United States drone program since inception. Originally designated the RQ-1 Predator now bears the classification of MQ-1C Predator as it has evolved in scope and purpose since the drone’s inception. Originally planned as a strict reconnaissance drone, the war in Afghanistan saw the Predator drone evolve to carry hellfire missiles, earning the new classification as MQ-1. However, that does not mean the Predator drone is a strict attack drone, the Predator drone still conducts reconnaissance missions in addition to live fire missions.

The MQ-1C Predator drone and its predecessors have seen combat time wherever United States troops have been deployed since 2000. Whether conducting live fire missions in Afghanistan circa 2002 to conducting reconnaissance in the modern day fractured Iraq the MQ-1 Predator drones have been a force multiplier on the same level as the advent of the helicopter. Like many drones, and the future of the United States drone program in general, the MQ-1C Predator can be deployed to support troops in combat, to assist troops with real-time enemy movement, can cruise at a higher altitude than most RPGs can hit, all while never putting the controller of the drone nor the drones support maintenance staff on location at risk. This drone’s capabilities, of projecting force while keeping US service personnel at a safe distance, is only rivaled by fellow drones. US Army attack helicopters can perform many of the same tasks as a MQ-1C Predator drone but at a lower altitude. In the rugged hills of Afghanistan or the mountainous regions of Yemen (both areas where the drone operates) helicopters are more susceptible to ground fire as well as natural occurrences such as sand storms, which can play havoc with a helicopters blade system.

For the MQ-1C Predator drone’s capabilities the price per unit is unmatched throughout the US military at 6.6 million US dollars. Comparatively, the US Apache helicopter, the workhorse of attack helicopters for the US Army since the 1980’s costs 52 million US dollars per unit. This is not a criticism of the Apache, or other attack helicopters, but a realization of the future development of US air power in the 21st century and beyond. The MQ-1C Predator drone can do many tasks that an Apache can do with lesser cost and much less risk to US personnel involved in a live fire mission. This drone, like others, also can fly for 24 continuous hours something an attack helicopter cannot do for both reasons of fuel and that they are manned. Having someone attempt to fly a helicopter for 24 straight hours, even if it was possible with fuel, sounds like a terrible idea.

One day, probably in the near future with the development of technology, the MQ-1 series of Predator drones will be only remembered as birth of the US drone program. Like many military pieces of equipment of the past the missions the Predator drone accomplished will be forgotten. More poignantly, the countless US military personnel the Predator drone has saved, either by conducting high risk missions usually reserved for helicopters or providing immediate air support to troops under fire will also be forgotten. But that doesn’t mean we should forget as the troops will not have forgotten the force, the protective shield, the Predator drone has provided since its inception.

Tradition Supplanted

Throughout history intelligence gathering has been left to forward observers, those who infiltrate the enemy, and those within the enemy organization who leak out information. In all these scenarios people are put at risk. Actual lives where on the line gathering this information; information that was changing in real-time. This put militaries in precarious situations. What information is outdated? What information has been doctored? What information is reliable? Is this where the enemy still is? Many of these questions have become answered through the US drone program.

The RQ-4 Global Hawk drone can provide real-time, continuous images, of enemy troop movements for 24 hours before needing to be refueled during that time  another RQ-4 Global Hawk drone can continue the information gathering. This capability is unheard of in military history and still is the sole domain of the United States military. The RQ-4 Global Hawk drone has advantages over both deploying troops and satellite images. Deploying troops to gather what a drone can easily gather means those troops cannot do another task. Satellites usually rotate around the world and are cost ineffective to remain parked over a certain mountain range in Afghanistan monitoring for enemy troop movements. The RQ-4 Global Hawk drone allows for the US armed forces to conduct surveillance in a cost effective manner compared to a satellite while simultaneously not exposing US military personnel to risk of field action.

Furthermore as recently as 2016 the RQ-4 Global Hawk drone provided real-time intelligence gathering over Germany, with respect to Russia violating airspace, as well as providing visuals of troop movement in Eastern Ukraine. This could be done traditionally but that would expose a pilot to the risk of being shot down or plane malfunction. One of the benefits of a drone malfunction mid air is no loss of life. At no other time in human history has man been able to project this form of power with little to no human life at risk- a veritable game changer moving forward.

For the absolute cynics out there who are unconcerned about the loss of human life one RQ-4 Global Hawk drone costs roughly 222 million US dollars now while an F-22 Raptor costs 339 million US dollars. Those figures include research and development costs but future costs still prove the RQ-4 Global Hawk drone cheaper than an F-22 Raptor costing 131 million USD to 139 million USD respectively. So yes, once again the drone program is more cost friendly than a manned plane and in case of emergency, or mechanical failure, no pilot is put at risk if the RQ-4 Global Hawk drone fails.

US Drones: Saving Lives

Since its inception, the United States Drone Program has protected the lives of countless US soldiers. Whether preventing high risk mission from occurring by allowing for an alternative to providing close air support in military engagements throughout Afghanistan and Iraq, the US drone program has been a force multiplier and a life saver. The mainstream media usually covers the drone program with respect to the loss of local civilian life- in the next series of articles I will try to tackle the positive aspects of the US drone program rarely mentioned.

“I think the use of drones is a good thing. They have added a dimension of capability to the United States that other nations don’t have. They also have the advantage of putting fewer American lives at risk.”- Donald Rumsfeld

Whether you share former Secretary Rumsfeld opinion or have a deep disdain for the way he led the Defense Department one aspect about Mr. Rumsfeld is true- wanted to lessen the risk of the common US solider. Under his tenure the US Drone program was rolled out beginning what would be current setting of today. Drone strikes are conducted on a monthly basis from Pakistan to Afghanistan: from Yemen to Syria; to bolster the strength of our allies in Iraq. All of these strikes serve three purposes. The first is to project power without projecting a standing force. The second is to limit the exposure of US military personnel in difficult to reach locations. The third is to achieve military goals traditionally associated with an infantry incursion, which would include infantry, artillery and air power. Amazingly, goals can be met without needing to expose troops to added risk by transferring high risk missions into the realm of US drone program missions.

Drones also provide a unique capability of providing real time intelligence concerning enemy troop movements without exposing forward observers. All throughout military history, that goes for the United States and other countries, if you wanted to know where your enemy was moving troops you would need to be deployed to achieve that end. Even with the development of satellites,  images can be inconclusive or worse provide inaccurate detail, forcing the military to still deploy troops with the aim of confirming the satellite image. This is no longer necessary thanks to the US drone program. Images can be gathered closer than ever before, through a multitude of imaging systems, allowing for those at base command to have a solid understanding of enemy troop movements without needing to deploy their men to shadow the enemy force. This “added dimension” has been of great use to the US military in terrorist hot zones like the Waziristan province of Pakistan. Twenty years ago, instead of using drones with the permission of the Pakistani government (their airspace), soldiers would have been needed to gather that intelligence. No matter what the force, no matter how well trained, no matter how well equipped asking 10 to 20 soldiers to conduct intelligence gathering 100 miles within unfriendly territory would be asking them to undertake a high risk mission with little success.