Once again the Never Trump movement strikes out into the darkness hoping that new candidate Evan McMullin will help keep Donald Trump from the White House. They should be careful what they wish for. While a certain segment of Republicans continue to rebuke Donald Trump and turn to alternative candidates they may end up paving a path that is easier for Donald Trump to win the presidency. Currently, Republicans who do not want to support Donald Trump have a few options: sit out the election, vote for Hillary Clinton, or vote for Gary Johnson. While there is the option to vote for Jill Stein her platform is the furthest from traditional Republican voters, so a very unlikely choice for any Republican voter. With the addition of Evan McMullin’s third party candidacy, and assuming the ability to get on the ballot in certain battleground states, the campaign may end up contributing more to a Trump victory than any misstep Hillary Clinton can make.

For example, Georgia and Utah in our current political era are traditionally Republican voting states in the presidential election. Trump absolutely has to carry these states if he wants to win the White House. However, both states seem to have sizable portions of the Republican Party that has no interest in voting for Donald Trump. Currently, as polling indicates, these voters are picking between Hillary Clinton and Gary Johnson. When they pick Hillary Clinton it makes Donald Trump’s path to victory very difficult. If they pick a third party or independent candidate, Donald Trump still retains his base support (usually around 30 percent in every Republican primary) without needing to worry about Hillary Clinton picking up support from irreconcilable Republicans from the Trump campaign perspective. It should be also noted that in general election polling Trump seems to always maintain the 30 to 35 percent base of support. Therefore, there is no need for Donald Trump to help consolidate the entire Republican Party, he just needs to reach out to disaffect Democrats and make sure to retain his base level of support. Part of the reason he won the Republican Primary was due in part to the amount of candidates in the race. If the primary season started out as Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz his likelihood of winning the Republican Primary would have dropped dramatically. Instead, Donald Trump was able to win multiple states with only 35 percent of the vote.

The Never Trump movement is creating the same scenario in the general election. If voters in Pennsylvania, and albatross for Republican candidates for decades, get to swing suburban voters to a third party option Trump’s chances of victory rise. Currently those voters are flocking to Hillary Clinton. If the viability of a third party candidate rises, even just as a protest vote, Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls will evaporate to a statistical tie within the margin of error. So once again, in a state like Pennsylvania does Donald Trump need to achieve 50 percent of the vote? 45 percent? No, most likely he would need to aim for 40 percent which may very well be attainable from making sure his base votes and the traditional Republican voters who will always vote R in the ballot box get to the voting booths then any extra votes are then just a bonus. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton needs those suburban voters in Pennsylvania, and for that matter, all across the country- even in traditionally blue states. Fending off a conservative third party candidate from the Clinton perspective means tacking more to the center. Moving to the center for Hillary Clinton would be exposing the fractures within the Democratic Party between progressives and liberals. Make no mistake the Never Trump movement’s embrace of a third party candidate will hurt Hillary Clinton’s campaign more than the Trump campaign.

That being said, it may help with down ballot candidates. The ability to say they are supporting a traditional conservative option sounds nice on paper. However, in practice, Republican voters for the most part have shown they want a party that supports the presidential candidate. In the end it is up to current Senators and House of Representatives members to win their respective reelection campaigns on the merits of their own campaign, not of the national presidential campaign of Donald Trump.

The Never Trump’s vehement desire to keep Donald Trump from the entering the White House may easily give Donald Trump the best path to victory